醉汉的脚步
The Drunkard's Walk
Leonard Mlodinow · 初版 2008 年
27人推荐
39位读者提及
50次提及
为什么值得读
- 梳理科学史中的概率演进与随机现象
- 剖析人类大脑误把随机现象归结因果的偏误
- 用二战轰炸分布等生动事例讲明集群效应
在这部风趣幽默且极具启发性的著作中，著名作家兼科学家 Leonard Mlodinow 向我们揭示了随机性、变化与概率如何深切映照出我们的日常生活，以及我们如何在从闲聊琐事到重大财务挫折的各种事物上曲解其意义。结果就是，生活中的成功与失败往往被归咎于显而易见的明确原因，而实际上它们受几率的影响更为深远。你最喜爱的电影明星的沉浮、最令人厌恶的 CEO 的起落——事实上，我们所有人的命运——所体现的不仅是规划与天资...
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……Richard Thaler。《瞬变：如何让改变轻松起来》（Switch: How to Change Things When Change is Hard）——Chip 和 Dan Heath。经济学类：《黑天鹅》（The Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable）——Nassim Taleb；《随机漫步的傻瓜》（Fooled by Randomness）——Nassim Taleb；《醉汉的脚步》（Drunkard's Walk）——Leonard Mlodinow。心理学类：《打开斯金纳的箱子》（Opening Skinner's Box）——Lauren Slater。管理学类：《教练的养成》（The Education of a Coach）——David Halberstam
…Richard Thaler Switch: How to Change Things When Change is Hard - Chip and Dan Heath Economics: The Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable - Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb Drunkard's Walk - Leonard Mlodinow Psychology: Opening Skinner's Box - Lauren Slater Management: The Education of a Coach - David Halberstam
我去年读了 Mlodinow 的书（《醉汉的脚步》），非常喜欢。有点讽刺的是，在这个研究方向上，我似乎被 Kahneman 和 Tversky 给“锚定”了。有人能推荐个不错的反方观点吗？我正在找……
I read Mlodinow's book (The Drunkard's Walk) last year and really enjoyed it. Somewhat ironically, I seem to have become anchored around Kahneman & Tversky in terms of this line of research. Can someone recommend a good counterpoint? I'm looking…
我挺好奇这些长寿聚集区到底是不是纯属随机。如果你读过《醉汉的脚步》（顺便强烈推荐），里面讲过一个类似现象：癌症聚集区，以及德军轰炸伦敦时炮弹的落点分布。这两种情况下，人们都急着想找出某种……
I wonder about these longevity clusters and whether they aren't just random. If you've read The Drunkard's Walk, (which I highly recommend by the way) there's a similar phenomenon with cancer clusters and the distribution of shells when the Germans were bombing London. In both cases people rushed to find some…
……误区。我们的大脑在某种程度上也有天生自带的机制，总想凭直觉找出简单的因果关系，哪怕实际上根本不存在。如果你对这个话题感兴趣，强烈推荐读读 Leonard Mlodinow 的《醉汉的脚步》。http://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules-Vintag...
…misconception. Our brains are also somewhat intrinsically hardwired to intuit simple causes and effects, even when none truly exist. If you're interested in the topic, I highly recommend reading "The Drunkard's Walk" by Leonard Mlodinow. http://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules-Vintag...
我一直在听 Leonard Mlodinow 的《醉汉的脚步：随机性如何支配我们的生活》[1]。这本书非常适合用来了解概率论的工作原理、科学史上随机性与概率的发展，以及随机性究竟怎样影响了如此之多的……
I've been listening to The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives[1] by Leonard Mlodinow. It is a great introduction to how probability works, the history of randomness and probability in science, and how randomness affects so much of…
《醉汉的脚步：随机性如何支配我们的生活》（The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives）http://www.amazon.com/The-Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules/dp... 是一本极好的书，它告诉你并不是所有事情都在你的掌控之中
"The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" http://www.amazon.com/The-Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules/dp... was a great book that showed that not everything is under your control