失败的逻辑
The logic of failure
Dietrich Dörner · 初版 1989 年
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为什么值得读
- 结合计算机模拟案例剖析棘手问题的解决困境
- 深刻指出高知人群在分析复杂系统时的思维偏见
- 探讨旧认知模式在复杂现代决策中引发的灾难
在 The Logic of Failure 一书中，Dietrich Dörner 指出了灾难的根源：正是那些看似微小且完全合理的步骤，一步步为灾难埋下了伏笔。通过对现实案例的深刻剖析以及往往令人捧腹的计算机模拟，他帮助所有参与各类战略规划的人士识别并避免这种符合逻辑却极具破坏性的错误。
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…Rittel & Webber 在《规划一般理论中的两难》（1973）中提出了“wicked problems”（棘手问题）的概念——http://www.uctc.net/mwebber/Rittel+Webber+Dilemmas+General_T... 迪特里希·德纳（Dietrich Dörner）的《失败的逻辑》（1996）把这个领域讲得非常透彻，书中还包含了一些案例研究，讲人们在援助项目的计算机模拟中试图拯救一个虚构的第三世界国家……结果无一例外地造成了灾难性后果。
…Ritter & Webber, "Dilemma's in a General Theory of Planning" (1973) introduced the concept of "wicked problems" - http://www.uctc.net/mwebber/Rittel+Webber+Dilemmas+General_T... Dietrich Dörner, The Logic of Failure (1996) covers this ground very well, including with case studies of people trying to save a fictional third-world country in a computer simulation of an aid program... with uniformly disastrous results.
…关于我们在分析复杂系统时的认知偏差，这是一本非常犀利、发人深省的书。[0] Gerald Weinberg《系统化思维导论》 [1] Gerald Weinberg《系统设计通用原理》 [2] Dietrich Dorner《失败的逻辑：识别并避免复杂情境中的错误》
…sharp, thoughtful book on our biases in analyzing complex systems. [0] 'An Introduction to General Systems Thinking', Gerald Weinberg [1] 'General Principles of Systems Design', Gerald Weinberg [2] 'The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations', Dietrich Dorner
…根本搞不定复杂的相互关联的部分……因此并没有足够的能力对其进行大刀阔斧的改动……至少在有意识层面做不到。对我来说，关于这个主题的开山之作就是迪特里希·德纳（Dietrich Dörner）的《失败的逻辑》。
…complex interacting parts well at all .. and are therefore not well placed to make such sweeping changes to it .. at least not consciously. The seminal book on this (for me) has been Dietrich Dörner's "The Logic of Failure".
…具备充分理解长期后果并提供优秀“解决方案”的技能。要想了解高“学历”人群可能出现的认知失误，Dietrich Dorner 的《失败的逻辑》是一本值得一读的好书。以 FB 为例，我认为个人社交网络的虚假隐私感，再加上外部能够对其进行集中定向投放，这两者的结合成了一种…
…is equipped with the skills to provide good "solutions" with full understanding of long term consequences. A good book to read about the possible cognitive failures of highly "educated" people is "The logic of failure" by Dietrich Dorner. In the case of FB, I think the illusory privacy of a personal network combined with the ability to centrally target these personal networks from the outside has been a mixing of…
…大概认为该原则涵盖了这一点（我也赞同）。任何对二阶思维（second-order-thinking）和决策制定感兴趣的人，都不妨读读 Dietrich Dorner 出色的《失败的逻辑：识别并避免复杂情境中的错误》（1997），作者在书中探讨了“那些在过去那个更简单的世界里固然适用、但在当今复杂世界中却被证明是灾难性的思维模式…
…presumably thought this principle encompasses (and with whom I agree). Anybody interested in second-order-thinking and decision-making could do far worse than obtain a copy of Dietrich Dorner’s excellent The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations (1997) wherein the author explores “patterns of thought that, while appropriate in an older, simpler world, prove disastrous for the complex world…
Dietrich Doerner 的《失败的逻辑》一书中给出了一些非常有趣的例子。
There are some very interesting examples of this given in the book "The Logic of Failure" by Dietrich Doerner.