《风险、不确定性与利润》封面

风险、不确定性与利润

Risk, uncertainty and profit

Frank H. Knight · 初版 1921 年

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Hacker News 上怎么说

  • ……在任何情况下,这都不过是一种毫无说服力的规范性情绪。审美标准首先是由社会决定的,其次才是被企业家塑造的。盈利动机是不确定性世界中内生的一部分(参见弗兰克·H·奈特的《风险、不确定性与利润》)。它本身是完全中立的。追求利润并没有任何过错,尽管很多人带着反资本主义的偏见,认定它罪大恶极。我基本同意,除非从……的意义上来说

    …event this is all a flimsy normative sentiment. Beauty standards are determined first societally, then by entrepreneurs. The profit motive is intrinsic to a world of uncertainty (see Frank H. Knight's Risk, Uncertainty and Profit). It is wholly neutral. There is nothing wrong with pursuing profits, even though a lot of people have an anti-capitalist bias and are convinced it's demonic. I mostly agree, except in the sense that…

  • 我读的大多数书,作者都已经过世很久了(最近在读的一本:弗兰克·H·奈特的《风险、不确定性与利润》,强烈推荐)。反正他们也不需要版税了。

    Most of the books I read are from authors long dead (current one: Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, by Frank H. Knight, highly recommended). They don't need the money.

  • ……棋盘游戏里的是风险,但还有一种分类叫做“不确定性”,这是你无法管理的(因为你既不知道概率分布,甚至不知道某件事是否可能/会不会发生)。想看对“风险”与“不确定性”之间区别的解释,去看弗兰克·奈特的《风险、不确定性与利润》吧,比我讲得清楚多了。我觉得值得注意的是,经济学中的创业理论往往是围绕着……的理念构建的

    …boardgames is risk and there's also the category of uncertainty which you can't manage (because you don't know the probability distribution or the fact that something is possible/could happen at all). See "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" by Frank Knight for a much better explanation of risk vs. uncertainty than what I can muster. I think it's noteworthy that entrepreneurship theory from economics tends to be build around the idea that…

  • ……去系统性地消除风险,因此对于大多数处理金融工具的公司来说,它作为稳定性的来源备受重视。奈特在他的《风险、不确定性与利润》一书中对系统性风险有一些思考。

    …to systematically eliminate risk, therefore it is highly valued as a source of stability for most companies who deal with financial instruments. Knight has some thoughts on systematic risk in his book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.

  • ……写了关于1980年代风投那篇帖子的人] 当我思考开辟一个全新的市场时,我认为这其中的风险并不是你所想的那种可量化的风险。而是弗兰克·奈特所说的“不确定性”(见奈特的《风险、不确定性与利润》,http://www.econlib.org/library/Knight/knRUP.html)。我更喜欢称之为“不可知性”,但概念是一回事。新市场的不可知性恰恰是其价值所在。如果它仅仅是……

    …wrote the 1980s VC post] When I think about building entirely new markets, I don't think the risk is the quantifiable risk that you're thinking of. It's what Frank Knight called "uncertainty" (Knight, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit", http://www.econlib.org/library/Knight/knRUP.html). I prefer to call it "unknowability", but the concept is the same. The unknowability of new markets is what makes them so valuable. If it were just…

  • ……喜欢彼得·德鲁克关于这个的那句名言。“关于未来,我们唯一确知的就是它定会让我们出乎意料。”——彼得·德鲁克;还有,“未来在本质上就与过去截然不同。”——弗兰克·奈特,《风险、不确定性与利润》(1921)

    …like the Peter Drucker quote about it. “The only thing we know about the future is that it will surprise us.” — Peter Drucker and, “The future is fundamentally different from the past.” — Frank Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)

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